Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 6133 ILM 15:22 → PHL 17:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time Riskiest PT 5954 ILM 13:21 → PHL 14:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 6133 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ILM 15:22	PHL 17:07	20%	7%	1.4%	53%
AA 6012 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ILM 18:57	PHL 20:42	24%	7%	1.3%	87%worse than usual
PT 5954 Piedmont	ILM 13:21	PHL 14:25	29%	8%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON