Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:34 am at Indianapolis); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1979 at 19:25, 33%.

Nonstops today


WN 1979 Southwest	IND 19:25	BNA 19:40	33%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 1332 Southwest Flight history →	IND 19:30	BNA 19:40	35%	7%	0.1%	50%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612	6h 17m	99%	81%
American Details →	IND 10:35 → ORD 11:00AA 4443 · flown by Republic	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 13:27 → BNA 15:08AA 2500	5h 33m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	IND 17:40 → MDW 17:55WN 961	3h 45m Chicago	MDW 21:40 → BNA 23:10WN 4091	6h 30m	100%	81%
United Details →	IND 18:33 → ORD 19:00UA 5435 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Chicago	ORD 21:43 → BNA 23:27UA 314	5h 54m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	IND 16:33 → MSP 17:24DL 2910	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144	6h 53m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:15 → BWI 14:50WN 4388	3h 10m Baltimore	BWI 18:00 → BNA 19:00WN 879	6h 45m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	IND 13:45 → MCI 14:15WN 4887	1h 20m Kansas City	MCI 15:35 → BNA 17:16WN 3196	4h 31m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	IND 17:30 → DTW 18:51DL 5827 · flown by Republic	2h 44m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BNA 22:15DL 2126	5h 45m	96%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 18:40 → MIA 21:28AA 926	47m Miami	MIA 22:15 → BNA 23:37AA 2096	5h 57m	53%	38%
American Details →	IND 13:36 → DFW 15:03AA 1955	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:50 → BNA 17:48AA 1490	5h 12m	63%	37%
American Details →	IND 17:23 → DFW 18:55AA 1956	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:41 → BNA 21:35AA 2979	5h 12m	59%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON