Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3567 at 07:05, 7%.

Safest bet today UA 3567 IND 07:05 → EWR 09:11 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 3571 IND 18:55 → EWR 21:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3567 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:05	EWR 09:11	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 3451 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:05	EWR 11:11	8%	2%	0.6%	95%
YX 3666 Republic	IND 10:50	EWR 12:58	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3645 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 10:54	EWR 12:59	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
YX 3677 Republic	IND 12:06	EWR 14:28	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 3478 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 12:54	EWR 15:00	25%	5%	0.8%	80%
UA 3667 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 16:05	EWR 18:33	30%	6%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 3469 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 15:50	EWR 18:05	33%	6%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
UA 3571 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:55	EWR 21:10	35%	6%	1.0%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON