Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:26 pm at Indianapolis); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 926 American Flight history →	IND 18:40	MIA 21:28	33%	11%	0.4%	68%
AA 2953 American	IND 19:25	MIA 22:08	35%	11%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 16:16 → MSP 17:10DL 2912	1h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187	7h 19m	96%	80%
American Details →	IND 15:33 → ORD 15:58AA 3596 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 19:27 → MIA 23:36AA 1159	8h 03m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	IND 16:42 → ATL 18:33DL 3134	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	6h 57m	97%	69%
Southwest Details →	IND 16:40 → BWI 18:25WN 4536	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 20:30 → MIA 23:20WN 235	6h 40m	96%	67%
United Details →	IND 16:25 → ORD 16:48UA 2680	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 18:05 → MIA 22:27UA 2180	6h 02m	79%	66%
United Details →	IND 15:50 → EWR 18:05UA 3469 · flown by Republic	3h 30m Newark	EWR 21:35 → MIA 00:40 +1UA 623	8h 50m	99%	66%
American Details →	IND 17:07 → DCA 19:09AA 4452 · flown by Republic	1h 31m Washington	DCA 20:40 → MIA 23:28AA 1233	6h 21m	89%	63%
American Details →	IND 16:49 → PHL 18:49AA 5592 · flown by PSA	3h 06m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	8h 03m	94%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 16:49 → PHL 18:49AA 5592 · flown by PSA	55m Philadelphia	PHL 19:44 → MIA 22:34AA 2132	5h 45m	61%	36%
American Details →	IND 19:10 → PHL 21:09AA 1957	46m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 42m	43%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON