Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2757 IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2912 IND 16:16 → MSP 17:10 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2757 Delta Flight history →	IND 07:00	MSP 07:49	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 2456 Delta Flight history →	IND 12:18	MSP 13:04	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1456 Delta Flight history →	IND 19:27	MSP 20:20	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2910 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:33	MSP 17:23	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2912 Delta Flight history →	IND 16:16	MSP 17:10	12%	3%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON