Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:42 pm at Indianapolis); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2136 at 21:15, 28%.

Safest bet today WN 2136 IND 21:15 → PHX 22:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time Riskiest AA 3078 IND 19:11 → PHX 19:49 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2136 Southwest Flight history →	IND 21:15	PHX 22:00	28%	9%	0.2%	57%
WN 2185 Southwest	IND 20:55	PHX 21:38	31%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 3198 Southwest	IND 16:35	PHX 16:37	31%	10%	0.1%	no record
AA 1453 American	IND 18:18	PHX 19:10	37%	19%	0.3%	no record
AA 3078 American Flight history →	IND 19:11	PHX 19:49	38%	18%	0.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON