tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:49 am at Indianapolis); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36% (calm day: 24%). Best bet: American via DFW, leaving 11:05, 37% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4891 Southwest Flight history → IND 11:35 SAN 12:45 28% 7% 0.2% 69%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IND 19:27 → MSP 20:20DL 1456 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 7h 03m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → IND 17:25 → LAX 18:45DL 861 4h 00m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 9h 17m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → IND 16:25 → ORD 16:48UA 2680 3h 17m Chicago ORD 20:05 → SAN 22:34UA 1531 9h 09m 95% 72%
SouthwestDetails → IND 09:35 → DEN 10:15WN 2118 2h 40m Denver DEN 12:55 → SAN 14:15WN 3503 7h 40m 100% 69%
DeltaDetails → IND 16:42 → ATL 18:33DL 3134 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 21:28 → SAN 22:57DL 896 9h 15m 97% 69%
SouthwestDetails → IND 16:40 → BWI 18:25WN 4536 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 21:05 → SAN 23:25WN 1089 9h 45m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → IND 10:45 → ORD 11:05UA 3534 · flown by Republic 1h 55m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 7h 40m 97% 67%
SouthwestDetails → IND 17:40 → MDW 17:55WN 961 3h 15m Chicago MDW 21:10 → SAN 23:30WN 2884 8h 50m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → IND 09:35 → DEN 10:15WN 2118 50m Denver DEN 11:05 → SAN 12:29WN 1755 5h 54m 60% 44%
AlaskaDetails → IND 17:19 → SEA 19:09AS 500 58m Seattle SEA 20:07 → SAN 22:53AS 254 8h 34m 64% 37%
SouthwestDetails → IND 20:00 → LAS 20:55WN 4753 55m Las Vegas LAS 21:50 → SAN 23:07WN 2317 6h 07m 62% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON