Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 28% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2203 at 18:55, 39%.

Safest bet today WN 2203 JAX 18:55 → AUS 20:35 · 39% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3772 JAX 14:31 → AUS 16:25 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2203 Southwest	JAX 18:55	AUS 20:35	39%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 4860 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 13:15	AUS 14:45	45%	10%	0.7%	34%
DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 14:31	AUS 16:25	50%	14%	0.9%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON