Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:54 am at Jacksonville)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 36–39% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4585 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 14:50	DAL 16:15	36%	7%	0.7%	61%
WN 2859 Southwest	JAX 18:30	DAL 20:06	39%	8%	0.9%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	JAX 13:15 → AUS 14:45WN 4860	3h 26m Austin	AUS 18:11 → DAL 19:21WN 1438	7h 06m	99%	80%
Southwest Details →	JAX 14:15 → BWI 16:10WN 2158	2h 10m Baltimore	BWI 18:20 → DAL 20:30WN 4365	7h 15m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 11m	96%	66%
Southwest Details →	JAX 16:55 → STL 18:05WN 449	3h 45m St Louis	STL 21:50 → DAL 23:30WN 3904	7h 35m	99%	66%
Southwest Details →	JAX 12:40 → BNA 13:10WN 2156	2h 15m Nashville	BNA 15:25 → DAL 17:20WN 489	5h 40m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 49m	88%	57%
Southwest Details →	JAX 17:20 → DEN 18:50WN 2161	1h 40m Denver	DEN 20:30 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	7h 10m	79%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	JAX 17:20 → DEN 18:50WN 2161	1h 21m Denver	DEN 20:11 → DAL 23:11WN 1579	6h 51m	73%	43%
Delta Details →	JAX 19:02 → ATL 20:19DL 2627	56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	4h 23m	55%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON