Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 2156 · JAX → BNA
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 1:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 37%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.07 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.