Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2156 · JAX → BNA
departs 3:55 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.