Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3936 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–41%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3936 JAX 06:16 → DCA 08:20 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1982 JAX 19:09 → DCA 21:06 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3936 Envoy	JAX 06:16	DCA 08:20	13%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 5552 American flown by PSA Flight history →	JAX 06:00	DCA 08:10	16%	14%	2.2%	83%
AA 4340 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 14:39	DCA 16:46	22%	9%	1.0%	50%
AA 949 American Flight history →	JAX 11:49	DCA 13:44	25%	9%	1.6%	89%worse than usual
AA 1982 American Flight history →	JAX 19:09	DCA 21:06	41%	14%	2.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON