Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4340
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4340 · JAX → DCA
departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.41 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.