Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4340
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4340 · JAX → DCA
departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 4:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
33%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +32 pts in 24h
+32 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
33%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.86 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.