Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:29 am at Jacksonville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 2162 at 05:35, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 2162 Southwest Flight history →	JAX 05:35	HOU 06:50	8%	1%	1.1%	100%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	JAX 06:20 → BNA 06:50WN 2155	1h 15m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → HOU 10:20WN 565	5h 00m	94%	81%
Southwest Details →	JAX 07:45 → MDW 09:05WN 1384	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783	6h 05m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 15m	97%	77%
Southwest Details →	JAX 06:55 → BWI 08:50WN 1181	1h 10m Baltimore	BWI 10:00 → HOU 12:15WN 956	6h 20m	96%	74%
American Details →	JAX 13:56 → DFW 15:52AA 687	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 20:06AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	7h 10m	96%	72%
Southwest Details →	JAX 16:55 → STL 18:05WN 449	3h 40m St Louis	STL 21:45 → HOU 23:50WN 4617	7h 55m	99%	71%
American Details →	JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12AA 1171	1h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	5h 52m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	6h 37m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	JAX 19:41 → DFW 21:25AA 1980	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 15m	63%	42%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	57m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	4h 17m	63%	42%
Southwest Details →	JAX 14:50 → DAL 16:15WN 4585	47m Dallas	DAL 17:02 → HOU 18:21WN 43	4h 31m	36%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON