tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1643 at 13:40 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 1643 JFK 13:40 → AUS 16:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3026 JFK 19:00 → AUS 22:18 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 1643 Delta Flight history → JFK 13:40 AUS 16:47 14% 3% 0.8% 86%
DL 2323 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:10 AUS 14:06 16% 2% 0.7% 84%
DL 1233 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:00 AUS 23:16 17% 6% 0.8% 76%
AA 763 American Flight history → JFK 06:59 AUS 10:08 17% 8% 0.8% 87%
AA 1222 American JFK 12:43 AUS 15:52 20% 4% 1.9% no record
AA 1409 American Flight history → JFK 12:26 AUS 15:37 20% 4% 1.3% 76%
DL 1406 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:07 AUS 10:04 22% 6% 0.8% 93%worse than usual
AA 810 American JFK 07:20 AUS 10:37 22% 9% 0.8% no record
AA 2772 American Flight history → JFK 20:28 AUS 23:55 26% 8% 1.3% 80%
AA 3026 American Flight history → JFK 19:00 AUS 22:18 27% 8% 1.3% 55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493 51m Charlotte CLT 14:56 → AUS 16:45AA 1408 5h 46m 80% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON