Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2643 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2643 JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1294 JFK 15:30 → CLT 17:44 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2643 American Flight history →	JFK 05:59	CLT 07:57	8%	3%	2.1%	93%
AA 1229 American	JFK 05:57	CLT 07:50	12%	3%	2.1%	no record
YX 5688 Republic	JFK 11:31	CLT 13:31	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1444 American Flight history →	JFK 07:59	CLT 10:07	14%	4%	1.3%	86%
AA 493 American Flight history →	JFK 11:59	CLT 14:05	14%	4%	1.9%	86%
AA 1945 American	JFK 12:11	CLT 14:00	15%	5%	2.1%	no record
AA 3120 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	CLT 19:30	19%	6%	1.3%	70%
AA 377 American	JFK 15:45	CLT 17:30	20%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 1294 American Flight history →	JFK 15:30	CLT 17:44	20%	6%	1.3%	59%
DL 5052 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:10	CLT 09:17	10%	6%	1.2%	90%
DL 5067 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:15	CLT 18:46	27%	10%	5.7%	73%
DL 5049 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 11:00	CLT 13:09	27%	11%	3.5%	73%
DL 5036 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 20:29	CLT 23:03	28%	14%	8.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON