Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4408 JFK 08:40 → CVG 10:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 4609 JFK 15:52 → CVG 18:07 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4408 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:40	CVG 10:56	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
YX 4522 Republic	JFK 11:31	CVG 13:46	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4609 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:52	CVG 18:07	18%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 4985 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:51	CVG 11:08	17%	7%	2.3%	83%
DL 5012 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 14:20	CVG 16:51	21%	10%	3.4%	79%
DL 5023 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:29	CVG 21:05	28%	15%	5.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON