Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4609 · JFK → CVG
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
CVG is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.05 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.