Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4609 · JFK → CVG
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.