Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4609
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4609 · JFK → CVG
departs 11:10 AM ET · arrives 1:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CVG that day
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CVG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.