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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 60 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2744 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2744 ONT 06:41 → DAL 11:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4652 SNA 15:32 → DFW 20:52 · 35% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 2744 Southwest ONT 06:41 DAL 11:40 5% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 4320 Southwest Flight history → SNA 06:45 DAL 11:55 5% 1% 0.6% 81%
WN 1417 Southwest LGB 06:51 DAL 11:53 6% 1% 0.5% no record
AA 1412 American Flight history → ONT 05:34 DFW 10:41 6% 3% 0.8% 89%
WN 199 Southwest LAX 05:11 DAL 10:16 7% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4128 Southwest Flight history → LAX 05:00 DAL 10:05 7% 1% 0.5% 80%
AA 2893 American Flight history → ONT 07:00 DFW 12:09 8% 3% 0.8% 87%
WN 1230 Southwest SNA 07:16 DAL 12:17 8% 1% 0.6% no record
AA 1578 American ONT 07:07 DFW 12:25 8% 3% 0.8% no record
AA 1382 American Flight history → SNA 06:46 DFW 12:02 8% 3% 1.2% 89%
DL 521 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:35 DFW 12:48 9% 3% 0.6% 88%
WN 2466 Southwest LAX 00:51 DAL 05:56 10% 2% 0.6% no record
AA 2746 American Flight history → LAX 07:00 DFW 12:18 10% 4% 0.7% 87%
AA 2811 American Flight history → LAX 06:00 DFW 11:15 11% 4% 0.7% 87%
AA 1112 American ONT 00:09 DFW 05:08 11% 4% 0.8% no record
AA 2596 American Flight history → SNA 08:01 DFW 13:10 11% 3% 1.0% 86%
AA 2599 American Flight history → BUR 07:01 DFW 12:19 11% 4% 1.3% 92%
WN 2921 Southwest Flight history → BUR 11:45 DAL 16:50 12% 3% 0.7% 81%
AA 2238 American Flight history → ONT 10:25 DFW 15:37 12% 4% 0.8% 81%
WN 264 Southwest Flight history → LGB 09:30 DAL 14:30 12% 2% 0.5% 85%
AA 2372 American Flight history → SNA 08:01 DFW 13:15 12% 4% 1.0% 82%
WN 1362 Southwest Flight history → LAX 07:50 DAL 12:50 13% 2% 0.5% 44%
WN 2294 Southwest LAX 07:41 DAL 12:45 13% 2% 0.5% no record
AA 2766 American Flight history → LAX 07:52 DFW 13:06 13% 5% 0.7% 84%
AA 2490 American Flight history → LAX 00:04 DFW 05:08 14% 5% 0.7% 92%
AA 2317 American Flight history → LAX 08:00 DFW 13:16 15% 6% 0.7% 76%
AA 971 American Flight history → LAX 00:31 DFW 05:41 16% 6% 0.7% 85%
AA 1186 American Flight history → LAX 09:02 DFW 14:25 16% 6% 0.7% 67%
AA 2644 American Flight history → SNA 09:16 DFW 14:30 16% 5% 1.2% 86%
AA 2680 American Flight history → SNA 10:25 DFW 15:39 16% 5% 1.2% 88%
AA 3006 American Flight history → ONT 23:59 DFW 05:00 17% 4% 0.8% 70%
AA 1445 American Flight history → LAX 01:10 DFW 06:20 18% 6% 0.7% 82%
AA 2242 American Flight history → ONT 12:35 DFW 17:50 18% 5% 0.8% 75%
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history → ONT 08:17 DFW 13:31 18% 5% 0.9% 76%
AA 968 American LAX 01:26 DFW 06:30 18% 7% 0.7% no record
F9 2274 Frontier Flight history → LAX 09:39 DFW 14:58 19% 8% 0.8% 82%
DL 948 Delta Flight history → LAX 13:50 DFW 19:04 19% 6% 0.6% 86%
DL 420 Delta Flight history → LAX 18:53 DFW 23:59 20% 8% 0.6% 82%
AA 3218 American Flight history → LAX 10:30 DFW 15:53 22% 10% 0.7% 73%
WN 3247 Southwest Flight history → ONT 16:20 DAL 21:15 23% 6% 0.7% 58%
AA 2672 American Flight history → SNA 11:56 DFW 17:12 23% 6% 1.0% 84%
AA 3136 American Flight history → LAX 23:48 DFW 05:01 24% 7% 0.7% 68%
AA 2239 American Flight history → ONT 14:15 DFW 19:30 24% 7% 0.7% 57%
AA 1230 American Flight history → LAX 12:15 DFW 17:34 25% 10% 0.7% 71%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history → LAX 01:10 DFW 06:24 25% 8% 0.8% 75%
AA 2669 American Flight history → SNA 12:55 DFW 18:14 25% 7% 0.9% 58%
AA 2668 American Flight history → SNA 18:39 DFW 23:46 25% 8% 1.2% 77%
WN 1263 Southwest Flight history → LAX 10:45 DAL 15:45 26% 4% 0.5% 28%
AA 2994 American Flight history → LAX 15:00 DFW 20:21 26% 10% 0.7% 63%
AA 1669 American Flight history → LAX 18:45 DFW 23:53 28% 11% 0.7% 67%
AA 2041 American Flight history → LAX 13:53 DFW 19:14 28% 10% 0.7% 49%
AA 1617 American Flight history → BUR 12:57 DFW 18:22 28% 8% 1.2% 69%
AA 2732 American Flight history → LAX 17:45 DFW 23:03 30% 12% 0.7% 48%
WN 2388 Southwest Flight history → LAX 17:50 DAL 22:55 30% 10% 0.5% 15%
F9 3212 Frontier Flight history → LAX 18:25 DFW 23:42 30% 18% 0.8% 64%
AA 2024 American Flight history → LAX 16:15 DFW 21:33 31% 11% 0.7% 54%
WN 4306 Southwest Flight history → LAX 14:55 DAL 20:00 33% 7% 0.5% 27%
AA 2684 American Flight history → SNA 14:24 DFW 19:44 33% 8% 0.9% 78%worse than usual
AA 2688 American Flight history → SNA 16:34 DFW 21:49 33% 8% 1.0% 67%
F9 4652 Frontier SNA 15:32 DFW 20:52 35% 14% 0.8% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON