Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:50 am at Las Vegas)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: G4 1649 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops today


G4 1649 Allegiant	LAS 07:10	ATW 12:47	16%	4%	0.2%	no record
G4 3185 Allegiant Flight history →	LAS 09:36	ATW 15:10	26%	7%	0.2%	90%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 06:19 → MSP 11:22DL 1282	2h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → ATW 15:30DL 3861 · flown by SkyWest	7h 11m	97%	81%
American Details →	LAS 12:38 → DFW 17:17AA 1482	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	97%	81%
United Details →	LAS 12:44 → ORD 18:25UA 314	3h 35m Chicago	ORD 22:00 → ATW 23:23UA 4495 · flown by GoJet	8h 39m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:41 → ATL 17:45DL 777	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	9h 50m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	LAS 11:27 → DTW 18:26DL 334	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	98%	76%
American Details →	LAS 09:40 → ORD 15:42AA 2020	1h 47m Chicago	ORD 17:29 → ATW 18:44AA 3410 · flown by Envoy	7h 04m	91%	73%
United Details →	LAS 11:53 → DEN 15:06UA 1006	2h 36m Denver	DEN 17:42 → ATW 21:05UA 2089	7h 12m	96%	72%
United Details →	LAS 07:00 → ORD 12:48UA 664	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ATW 15:09UA 4479 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	91%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LAS 15:51 → ORD 22:00AA 2013	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → ATW 00:10 +1AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	6h 19m	71%	64%
American Details →	LAS 14:02 → DFW 19:03AA 777	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	65%	54%
Delta Details →	LAS 13:12 → ATL 20:24DL 466	52m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → ATW 22:31DL 2945	7h 19m	64%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON