Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2331 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2331 LAS 05:15 → MCO 12:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1876 LAS 21:42 → MCO 05:30 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2331 Southwest	LAS 05:15	MCO 12:40	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4590 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 22:50	MCO 06:25	25%	6%	1.2%	83%
WN 1225 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:40	MCO 22:25	31%	11%	0.8%	27%
WN 4505 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:10	MCO 20:00	32%	10%	0.9%	45%
WN 1797 Southwest	LAS 10:30	MCO 17:52	33%	9%	1.0%	no record
B6 2832 JetBlue Flight history →	LAS 14:55	MCO 22:36	33%	12%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
F9 1728 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 12:27	MCO 20:23	41%	14%	1.3%	62%
F9 1876 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:42	MCO 05:30	41%	16%	2.1%	71%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAS 00:33 → ATL 07:18DL 857	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213	6h 23m	88%	73%
Southwest Details →	LAS 12:21 → AUS 17:02WN 4267	1h 03m Austin	AUS 18:05 → MCO 21:50WN 353	6h 29m	88%	57%
Southwest Details →	LAS 10:45 → ABQ 13:20WN 2175	1h 05m Albuquerque	ABQ 14:25 → MCO 19:58WN 4873	6h 13m	87%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON