Today: WN 4041 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet today WN 4041 LAS 07:55 → MSY 13:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1708 LAS 14:39 → MSY 20:35 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4041 Southwest	LAS 07:55	MSY 13:21	10%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2845 Southwest	LAS 12:00	MSY 17:26	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4396 Southwest	LAS 18:10	MSY 23:35	35%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 2293 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:25	MSY 21:55	38%	8%	0.3%	31%
F9 1708 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:39	MSY 20:35	39%	8%	0.9%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON