Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2370 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–47%.

Safest bet that day WN 2370 LAS 05:45 → PHX 07:01 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3186 LAS 16:34 → PHX 17:48 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2370 Southwest	LAS 05:45	PHX 07:01	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 2309 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 06:20	PHX 07:35	6%	1%	0.4%	92%
WN 2371 Southwest	LAS 07:05	PHX 08:22	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 1808 American Flight history →	LAS 06:45	PHX 08:00	14%	4%	0.4%	91%
WN 451 Southwest	LAS 08:49	PHX 10:05	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 209 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:55	PHX 09:15	16%	2%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
WN 2310 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:40	PHX 11:00	17%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1956 American	LAS 09:19	PHX 10:36	22%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 1914 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:25	PHX 22:45	24%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 1400 Southwest	LAS 11:01	PHX 12:17	25%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2004 American Flight history →	LAS 09:56	PHX 11:08	25%	5%	1.2%	92%worse than usual
WN 4586 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 11:30	PHX 12:50	27%	4%	0.6%	77%
F9 4048 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 10:04	PHX 11:27	30%	9%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
WN 2311 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:30	PHX 13:50	30%	5%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
WN 864 Southwest	LAS 12:26	PHX 13:43	33%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 1896 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 21:48	PHX 23:05	33%	13%	0.8%	75%
AA 1568 American	LAS 12:38	PHX 14:02	33%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 1639 Southwest	LAS 19:01	PHX 20:18	35%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 4138 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 13:45	PHX 15:05	36%	6%	0.6%	67%
WN 1033 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:30	PHX 18:55	37%	7%	0.6%	58%
WN 4461 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:35	PHX 19:50	37%	8%	0.7%	41%
AA 1613 American	LAS 13:38	PHX 15:01	37%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 188 Southwest	LAS 14:40	PHX 15:57	39%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1589 Southwest	LAS 17:16	PHX 18:33	39%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1022 American Flight history →	LAS 20:05	PHX 21:18	39%	10%	1.2%	40%
F9 1020 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 14:42	PHX 16:09	42%	16%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
AA 1466 American Flight history →	LAS 13:13	PHX 14:29	46%	10%	1.0%	63%
AA 3183 American	LAS 16:55	PHX 18:12	46%	10%	1.2%	no record
AA 3186 American Flight history →	LAS 16:34	PHX 17:48	47%	12%	1.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON