Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 20 nonstops

Today: WN 2433 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–35%.

Safest bet today WN 2433 LAS 06:43 → SNA 07:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4841 LAS 15:49 → SNA 17:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2433 Southwest	LAS 06:43	SNA 07:54	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3715 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 07:05	SNA 08:10	8%	1%	0.4%	96%
WN 2434 Southwest	LAS 08:07	SNA 09:19	9%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 187 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:10	SNA 10:20	12%	3%	0.4%	84%
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 08:45	SNA 10:02	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
WN 2092 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 10:30	SNA 11:40	22%	4%	0.5%	81%
WN 2616 Southwest	LAS 21:15	SNA 22:27	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1590 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 21:15	SNA 22:25	22%	4%	0.6%	82%
WN 2435 Southwest	LAS 10:52	SNA 12:04	23%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4266 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 20:20	SNA 21:30	25%	6%	0.6%	52%
WN 2439 Southwest	LAS 20:25	SNA 21:37	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAS 18:01	SNA 19:15	26%	9%	0.9%	89%worse than usual
WN 2366 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 18:05	SNA 19:10	31%	6%	0.6%	47%
F9 1699 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 11:16	SNA 12:31	31%	13%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
WN 3086 Southwest	LAS 12:42	SNA 13:54	32%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 3737 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 15:55	SNA 17:15	33%	14%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
WN 4022 Southwest	LAS 16:59	SNA 18:11	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 170 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 14:30	SNA 15:40	35%	8%	0.5%	44%
WN 342 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 16:45	SNA 17:50	35%	7%	0.5%	60%
WN 4841 Southwest	LAS 15:49	SNA 17:00	37%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON