Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2372 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 2372 LAS 09:00 → TPA 16:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest F9 1258 LAS 22:18 → TPA 05:54 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2372 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 09:00	TPA 16:30	22%	3%	0.7%	79%
WN 4494 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 17:45	TPA 01:20	33%	9%	0.7%	71%
WN 2709 Southwest	LAS 11:21	TPA 18:39	34%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3095 Southwest Flight history →	LAS 12:55	TPA 20:30	34%	9%	0.8%	61%
WN 1860 Southwest	LAS 16:55	TPA 00:11	36%	8%	0.7%	no record
F9 1258 Frontier Flight history →	LAS 22:18	TPA 05:54	44%	14%	3.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON