Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 390 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 390 LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 3782 LAX 10:06 → ATL 17:05 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 390 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:00	ATL 13:35	7%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 515 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ATL 14:35	9%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 579 Delta	LAX 00:00	ATL 07:23	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 782 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	ATL 15:41	12%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 783 Delta Flight history →	LAX 21:24	ATL 05:00	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 471 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:40	ATL 00:30	13%	5%	0.7%	85%
DL 899 Delta Flight history →	LAX 22:40	ATL 06:10	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
DL 446 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:00	ATL 19:39	15%	4%	0.7%	85%
DL 715 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:15	ATL 21:59	15%	5%	0.7%	82%
DL 320 Delta Flight history →	LAX 23:59	ATL 07:33	16%	4%	0.6%	74%
DL 528 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:00	ATL 18:37	16%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 395 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:15	ATL 20:56	16%	4%	0.7%	80%
DL 8877 Delta	LAX 11:10	ATL 18:31	21%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1141 American	LAX 09:35	ATL 17:03	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
DL 327 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:50	ATL 16:50	25%	3%	0.7%	72%
AA 753 American Flight history →	LAX 09:45	ATL 17:15	26%	10%	0.7%	61%
F9 3216 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:08	ATL 07:41	26%	8%	1.0%	65%
UA 3782 United	LAX 10:06	ATL 17:05	33%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON