Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 521 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 521 LAX 07:35 → DFW 12:48 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 2024 LAX 16:15 → DFW 21:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:35	DFW 12:48	10%	3%	0.7%	88%
AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	13%	4%	2.3%	87%
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	13%	5%	2.3%	87%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	LAX 07:51	DFW 13:04	16%	6%	2.3%	84%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LAX 00:04	DFW 05:06	16%	6%	2.6%	92%
AA 2317 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	DFW 13:16	17%	6%	1.8%	76%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	LAX 09:02	DFW 14:25	18%	7%	1.3%	67%
AA 922 American	LAX 09:08	DFW 14:19	18%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:31	DFW 05:41	19%	6%	1.9%	85%
DL 948 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:50	DFW 19:04	19%	6%	0.6%	86%
F9 2274 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 09:39	DFW 14:58	19%	8%	0.8%	82%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:53	DFW 23:59	20%	8%	0.7%	82%
AA 1445 American Flight history →	LAX 01:10	DFW 06:20	22%	7%	1.6%	82%
AA 968 American	LAX 01:25	DFW 06:28	22%	8%	1.9%	no record
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 01:04	DFW 06:20	25%	9%	0.9%	75%
AA 3218 American Flight history →	LAX 10:30	DFW 15:53	25%	10%	1.3%	73%
AA 3136 American Flight history →	LAX 23:48	DFW 05:01	27%	8%	1.3%	68%
AA 1230 American Flight history →	LAX 12:15	DFW 17:34	27%	10%	1.3%	71%
AA 2994 American Flight history →	LAX 15:00	DFW 20:21	30%	10%	1.3%	63%
AA 2041 American Flight history →	LAX 13:53	DFW 19:14	30%	10%	1.3%	49%
F9 3212 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:25	DFW 23:42	30%	17%	0.8%	64%
AA 2732 American Flight history →	LAX 17:45	DFW 23:03	30%	12%	1.2%	48%
AA 1669 American Flight history →	LAX 18:45	DFW 23:53	31%	10%	1.3%	67%
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 16:15	DFW 21:33	33%	12%	1.3%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON