Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2415 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 2415 LAX 06:00 → OAK 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 2418 LAX 17:45 → OAK 19:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2415 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:00	OAK 07:30	3%	1%	0.6%	95%
WN 3450 Southwest	LAX 06:00	OAK 07:24	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1974 Southwest	LAX 09:25	OAK 10:50	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	OAK 10:20	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
WN 4893 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:55	OAK 13:15	16%	5%	0.5%	81%
WN 2494 Southwest	LAX 12:25	OAK 13:50	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2417 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 15:30	OAK 16:50	18%	6%	0.5%	64%
WN 4554 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:05	OAK 22:30	22%	8%	0.5%	53%
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:45	OAK 19:05	23%	8%	0.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON