tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:18 am at Los Angeles)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: DL 508 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–37%.

Safest bet today DL 508 LAX 09:35 → RDU 17:30 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1049 LAX 15:57 → RDU 23:51 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time
Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 508 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:35 RDU 17:30 15% 4% 0.1% 84%
DL 462 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:53 RDU 17:41 16% 4% 0.1% 79%
AA 2396 American Flight history → LAX 08:47 RDU 16:46 21% 5% 0.2% 52%
AA 1754 American LAX 09:00 RDU 16:51 21% 6% 0.2% no record
AA 1852 American Flight history → LAX 22:49 RDU 06:50 33% 10% 0.9% 76%
AA 1049 American Flight history → LAX 15:57 RDU 23:51 37% 9% 0.1% 89%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → LAX 05:55 → DEN 09:20WN 2943 1h 21m Denver DEN 10:41 → RDU 15:59WN 1761 7h 04m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 51m Houston IAH 12:03 → RDU 15:55UA 2196 7h 10m 91% 77%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 2400 1h 24m St Louis STL 20:34 → RDU 23:34WN 278 7h 04m 85% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON