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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 46 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2647 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2647 LAX 06:00 → SFO 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2429 LAX 21:05 → SFO 22:25 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 9% on time
Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2647 United Flight history → LAX 06:00 SFO 07:35 5% 2% 0.5% 94%
UA 781 United LAX 06:04 SFO 07:36 6% 3% 0.5% no record
WN 2503 Southwest LAX 06:33 SFO 07:57 6% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 2426 Southwest Flight history → LAX 06:55 SFO 08:15 12% 3% 0.5% 97%
AA 6336 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:37 13% 5% 0.6% 82%
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:00 SFO 08:21 14% 3% 0.7% 94%
OO 6274 SkyWest LAX 07:16 SFO 08:46 16% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 520 United Flight history → LAX 09:10 SFO 10:45 18% 7% 0.5% 65%
UA 1372 United Flight history → LAX 07:30 SFO 09:06 19% 5% 0.5% 49%
DL 2725 Delta Flight history → LAX 12:00 SFO 13:26 19% 8% 0.7% 69%
UA 1791 United Flight history → LAX 10:55 SFO 12:30 20% 10% 0.5% 58%
UA 233 United Flight history → LAX 17:05 SFO 18:33 21% 10% 0.5% 83%
AS 1603 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:15 SFO 08:39 21% 5% 0.6% 65%
UA 372 United Flight history → LAX 13:25 SFO 14:53 21% 8% 0.5% 65%
AA 6188 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 11:34 SFO 13:08 22% 11% 0.6% 39%
UA 2019 United Flight history → LAX 16:14 SFO 17:42 23% 11% 0.5% 68%
UA 1905 United LAX 09:21 SFO 10:44 23% 6% 0.5% no record
AA 6277 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:17 SFO 10:47 23% 9% 0.6% 63%
AA 6330 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 09:22 SFO 10:56 23% 9% 0.6% 37%
DL 1715 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:20 SFO 10:42 23% 6% 0.7% 52%
AA 6510 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 22:32 SFO 23:59 23% 8% 0.7% 81%
AS 1456 Alaska LAX 09:09 SFO 10:37 25% 6% 0.6% no record
AS 3067 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 22:27 SFO 23:57 25% 10% 0.7% 36%
UA 2056 United Flight history → LAX 21:34 SFO 23:02 25% 10% 0.6% 61%
AA 6260 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 20:38 SFO 22:14 25% 10% 0.7% 63%
WN 2504 Southwest LAX 10:00 SFO 11:24 26% 9% 0.5% no record
F9 2857 Frontier Flight history → LAX 08:44 SFO 10:19 26% 9% 1.0% 50%
WN 4950 Southwest Flight history → LAX 12:25 SFO 13:40 26% 8% 0.5% 22%
AS 1522 Alaska Flight history → LAX 13:28 SFO 14:51 26% 7% 0.6% 48%
AA 6221 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 14:00 SFO 15:34 26% 13% 0.6% 39%
UA 2681 United Flight history → LAX 18:45 SFO 20:10 28% 12% 0.5% 38%
WN 2427 Southwest Flight history → LAX 10:00 SFO 11:20 28% 9% 0.5% 19%
AS 1610 Alaska Flight history → LAX 16:25 SFO 17:47 28% 10% 0.6% 54%
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:35 SFO 18:52 28% 10% 0.6% 69%
AS 1607 Alaska Flight history → LAX 10:03 SFO 11:27 28% 8% 0.7% 33%
AS 687 Alaska Flight history → LAX 08:20 SFO 09:45 30% 6% 0.6% 7%
DL 2986 Delta Flight history → LAX 22:00 SFO 23:19 30% 9% 0.7% 60%
UA 1195 United Flight history → LAX 20:10 SFO 21:38 30% 10% 0.6% 28%
DL 2267 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:25 SFO 15:44 30% 10% 0.7% 50%
F9 4593 Frontier Flight history → LAX 19:07 SFO 20:45 30% 14% 1.3% 49%
AA 2567 American Flight history → LAX 17:52 SFO 19:21 33% 16% 0.7% 57%
AS 1601 Alaska Flight history → LAX 19:34 SFO 20:57 33% 9% 0.6% 15%
WN 3168 Southwest Flight history → LAX 14:10 SFO 15:25 34% 10% 0.5% 12%
DL 2197 Delta Flight history → LAX 20:30 SFO 21:49 37% 9% 0.7% 45%
WN 3161 Southwest Flight history → LAX 17:20 SFO 18:40 37% 12% 0.5% 19%
WN 2429 Southwest Flight history → LAX 21:05 SFO 22:25 38% 10% 0.5% 9%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON