Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2520 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2520 LAX 06:05 → SJC 07:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2457 LAX 18:11 → SJC 19:28 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2520 Southwest	LAX 06:05	SJC 07:28	2%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2430 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:40	SJC 07:50	3%	1%	0.2%	94%
WN 2431 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SJC 10:15	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 1045 Southwest	LAX 09:20	SJC 10:42	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4451 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:55	SJC 09:10	8%	4%	0.6%	100%
OO 3847 SkyWest	LAX 07:53	SJC 09:19	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1380 Delta	LAX 09:25	SJC 10:46	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 2965 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:22	SJC 10:38	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:57	SJC 14:12	12%	6%	0.6%	90%
WN 3044 Southwest	LAX 11:35	SJC 12:57	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3849 SkyWest	LAX 14:23	SJC 15:50	13%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 2432 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 11:15	SJC 12:25	14%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 3822 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:32	SJC 15:46	14%	7%	0.6%	95%
WN 2509 Southwest	LAX 13:20	SJC 14:42	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SJC 14:25	17%	4%	0.6%	77%
WN 2510 Southwest	LAX 15:00	SJC 16:23	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1359 Delta	LAX 16:06	SJC 17:27	18%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:17	SJC 19:32	19%	9%	0.6%	88%
DL 1438 Delta Flight history →	LAX 16:00	SJC 17:12	19%	6%	0.8%	87%
DL 3073 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:59	SJC 22:13	19%	6%	0.8%	82%
WN 955 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 15:15	SJC 16:25	22%	4%	0.6%	62%
WN 2525 Southwest	LAX 17:45	SJC 19:08	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2435 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 19:55	SJC 21:15	24%	7%	0.6%	54%
WN 2434 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:00	SJC 18:15	25%	6%	0.6%	65%
F9 4081 Frontier	LAX 18:38	SJC 20:10	26%	13%	1.9%	no record
F9 2457 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:11	SJC 19:28	28%	14%	1.8%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON