Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4894 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4894 LAX 06:20 → SMF 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 3315 LAX 16:05 → SMF 17:38 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4894 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 06:20	SMF 07:45	5%	1%	0.5%	97%
WN 1276 Southwest	LAX 07:00	SMF 08:30	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5537 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:28	SMF 11:13	9%	4%	0.5%	92%
AA 6348 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:59	SMF 09:35	10%	3%	0.5%	88%
WN 2514 Southwest	LAX 09:59	SMF 11:28	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:10	SMF 08:41	11%	3%	0.5%	74%
UA 5372 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:20	SMF 10:56	11%	4%	0.5%	89%
OO 6279 SkyWest	LAX 09:40	SMF 11:12	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:05	SMF 10:37	11%	4%	0.5%	95%
WN 4454 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 09:30	SMF 10:55	11%	2%	0.4%	90%
OO 134 SkyWest	LAX 11:59	SMF 13:33	12%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 5858 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:30	SMF 18:06	12%	6%	0.5%	92%
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:05	SMF 13:32	13%	6%	0.5%	89%
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:38	SMF 18:11	13%	6%	0.5%	88%
AA 4908 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:44	SMF 23:20	13%	4%	0.5%	79%
AA 6346 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:18	SMF 18:51	13%	6%	0.5%	89%
DL 4083 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:35	SMF 23:07	15%	4%	0.5%	76%
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:41	SMF 20:10	15%	6%	0.6%	88%
WN 2515 Southwest	LAX 12:05	SMF 13:35	18%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 2008 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:00	SMF 15:25	22%	5%	0.4%	85%
WN 4921 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 21:05	SMF 22:30	22%	6%	0.4%	58%
WN 265 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 12:15	SMF 13:35	22%	4%	0.4%	88%worse than usual
WN 4500 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 17:45	SMF 19:10	22%	6%	0.5%	62%
F9 3315 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:05	SMF 17:38	24%	10%	0.8%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON