Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:56 pm at New York); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5396 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 22:12	BGR 23:39	24%	9%	0.3%	66%
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 15:06	BGR 16:04	32%	9%	0.2%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 17:09 → DCA 18:41AA 4736 · flown by Republic	3h 23m Washington	DCA 22:04 → BGR 23:59AA 5436 · flown by PSA	6h 50m	100%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 16:00 → ORD 18:08AA 396	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:08 → BGR 22:57AA 340	6h 57m	63%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON