Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4379 at 09:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4379 LGA 09:07 → BUF 10:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 5792 LGA 16:14 → BUF 17:41 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4379 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:07	BUF 10:40	7%	2%	0.7%	84%
AA 4738 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:21	BUF 10:58	8%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 4521 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:29	BUF 21:07	19%	8%	0.7%	74%
AA 4496 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:43	BUF 17:10	22%	6%	0.7%	69%
DL 5792 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:14	BUF 17:41	23%	8%	0.7%	81%
DL 5366 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:45	BUF 09:13	17%	6%	2.4%	83%
DL 5362 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:18	BUF 13:50	20%	6%	6.7%	80%
DL 5380 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:45	BUF 17:30	34%	19%	11.1%	66%
DL 5397 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:59	BUF 23:32	39%	20%	15.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON