Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:29 am at New York)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464	2h 45m Chicago	MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741	9h 25m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454	2h 35m Denver	DEN 11:40 → BUR 13:15WN 2620	9h 20m	99%	83%
Southwest Details →	LGA 10:55 → MDW 12:15WN 4573	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 15:45 → BUR 18:07WN 2907	10h 12m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	LGA 10:20 → DEN 12:40WN 1228	2h 58m Denver	DEN 15:38 → BUR 17:13WN 1558	9h 53m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35WN 2341	3h 20m Dallas	DAL 11:55 → BUR 13:05WN 4076	10h 00m	100%	76%
United Details →	LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154	1h 20m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	8h 08m	91%	75%
Southwest Details →	LGA 11:05 → BNA 12:30WN 470	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 15:40 → BUR 17:55WN 461	9h 50m	96%	69%
American Details →	LGA 06:30 → DFW 09:23AA 1597	1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:56 → BUR 12:05AA 1617	8h 35m	95%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LGA 16:30 → DAL 19:35WN 4401	1h 00m Dallas	DAL 20:35 → BUR 21:57WN 4587	8h 27m	69%	46%
Southwest Details →	LGA 16:25 → DEN 19:05WN 2456	1h 15m Denver	DEN 20:20 → BUR 21:54WN 4390	8h 29m	68%	45%
American Details →	LGA 15:00 → DFW 18:05AA 1043	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → BUR 20:20AA 2597	8h 20m	63%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON