Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: YX 4602 at 09:13, 19%.

Safest bet today YX 4602 LGA 09:13 → CHS 11:36 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4561 LGA 19:59 → CHS 22:17 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4602 Republic	LGA 09:13	CHS 11:36	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4614 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:10	CHS 11:35	21%	4%	0.7%	87%
DL 2013 Delta	LGA 08:34	CHS 10:40	30%	5%	1.0%	no record
YX 4567 Republic	LGA 14:58	CHS 17:15	31%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 4583 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:00	CHS 23:21	31%	9%	4.3%	74%
AA 4588 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:59	CHS 17:23	33%	7%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	CHS 14:47	33%	7%	0.8%	68%
YX 4561 Republic	LGA 19:59	CHS 22:17	35%	10%	4.3%	no record
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:30	CHS 10:44	17%	7%	3.6%	83%
DL 4676 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:32	CHS 22:02	36%	22%	9.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON