Today: AA 4419 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–30%.

Safest bet today AA 4419 LGA 07:14 → GSO 09:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 4577 LGA 20:59 → GSO 22:53 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4419 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:14	GSO 09:10	5%	2%	0.2%	85%
AA 4483 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:19	GSO 10:08	8%	3%	0.2%	72%
YX 5781 Republic	LGA 08:14	GSO 10:10	8%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 5862 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:42	GSO 13:42	12%	4%	0.2%	82%
AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:22	GSO 17:25	23%	7%	0.3%	67%
AA 4421 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:40	GSO 17:47	26%	9%	0.3%	62%
AA 4577 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:59	GSO 22:53	30%	8%	0.8%	72%
DL 5125 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:30	GSO 09:20	17%	4%	5.8%	83%
DL 5107 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 16:15	GSO 18:22	31%	12%	7.7%	69%
DL 5118 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:35	GSO 22:51	36%	24%	22.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON