Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 716 LGA 18:24 → MIA 21:48 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1249 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MIA 09:15	5%	2%	1.3%	94%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:10	MIA 10:19	6%	3%	0.8%	89%
AA 1530 American Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MIA 10:15	8%	3%	1.2%	88%
AA 970 American Flight history →	LGA 07:59	MIA 11:14	9%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 3211 American Flight history →	LGA 09:28	MIA 12:45	12%	3%	0.9%	76%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:15	MIA 14:24	14%	4%	0.8%	77%
AA 2945 American Flight history →	LGA 11:00	MIA 14:11	14%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 1643 American Flight history →	LGA 13:00	MIA 16:14	19%	5%	0.9%	67%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:59	MIA 18:30	20%	9%	0.8%	63%
AA 3017 American Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MIA 19:06	22%	10%	1.0%	72%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MIA 23:22	22%	14%	1.2%	59%
DL 1620 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:50	MIA 21:21	26%	14%	1.0%	58%
AA 605 American Flight history →	LGA 16:55	MIA 20:22	30%	13%	1.2%	68%
AA 1576 American Flight history →	LGA 19:29	MIA 22:48	30%	13%	1.3%	50%
AA 716 American Flight history →	LGA 18:24	MIA 21:48	30%	14%	1.3%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON