Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:18 pm at New York); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5780 at 20:35, 48%.

Nonstops today


DL 5780 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:35	MKE 22:30	48%	22%	0.6%	76%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 19:27 → CLT 21:19AA 2390	1h 29m Charlotte	CLT 22:48 → MKE 23:54AA 1072	5h 27m	84%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:19 → ORD 19:57AA 3163	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MKE 22:21AA 6357 · flown by SkyWest	5h 02m	48%	30%
Southwest Details →	LGA 18:30 → STL 20:30WN 4895	1h 15m St Louis	STL 21:45 → MKE 23:00WN 3406	5h 30m	45%	28%
Southwest Details →	LGA 19:45 → BNA 21:30WN 2449	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 22:40 → MKE 00:20 +1WN 4519	5h 35m	25%	14%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON