Today: YX 4426 at 13:25 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–37%.

Safest bet today YX 4426 LGA 13:25 → OKC 16:32 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4526 LGA 18:59 → OKC 22:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4426 Republic	LGA 13:25	OKC 16:32	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 4470 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:37	OKC 16:23	18%	4%	0.2%	78%
AA 4526 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	OKC 22:05	37%	10%	0.9%	66%
DL 5199 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:15	OKC 21:10	38%	18%	4.5%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465	55m Chicago	MDW 09:45 → OKC 11:58WN 2941	5h 33m	91%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON