Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 pm at New York); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 67%, against 33% on a calm day. Safest: DL 4900 at 20:34, 67%.

Nonstops today


DL 4900 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 20:34	OMA 22:47	67%	30%	0.3%	71%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 18:19 → ORD 19:57AA 3163	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → OMA 00:37 +1AA 3198	7h 18m	94%	61%
American Details →	LGA 19:27 → CLT 21:19AA 2390	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 22:41 → OMA 00:19 +1AA 961	5h 52m	79%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 19:25 → ORD 21:35AA 3318	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 22:52 → OMA 00:38 +1AA 3334	6h 13m	68%	41%
Southwest Details →	LGA 18:30 → STL 20:30WN 4895	1h 15m St Louis	STL 21:45 → OMA 23:05WN 4912	5h 35m	45%	30%
United Details →	LGA 18:25 → ORD 20:12UA 1098	1h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:16 → OMA 22:49UA 2336	5h 24m	40%	25%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON