tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 47 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2389 at 06:10, 5%.

Safest bet that day UA 2389 LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 2336 LGA 17:17 → ORD 18:48 · 52% chance 15+ min late
Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 2389 United Flight history → LGA 06:10 ORD 07:49 5% 2% 0.3% 89%
DL 2251 Delta Flight history → LGA 06:00 ORD 07:32 6% 3% 0.4% 93%
AA 462 American Flight history → LGA 06:40 ORD 08:26 7% 2% 2.6% 93%
DL 2985 Delta Flight history → LGA 08:45 ORD 10:23 11% 3% 0.7% 80%
DL 2917 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:30 ORD 09:06 12% 3% 0.7% 81%
AA 589 American Flight history → LGA 08:50 ORD 10:37 13% 4% 1.8% 76%
UA 1008 United LGA 07:17 ORD 08:47 13% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1057 United Flight history → LGA 09:10 ORD 10:56 14% 3% 0.7% 84%
UA 2822 United Flight history → LGA 07:21 ORD 09:00 14% 3% 0.7% 83%
AA 392 American Flight history → LGA 07:23 ORD 09:09 14% 3% 2.7% 87%
UA 623 United Flight history → LGA 08:05 ORD 09:44 15% 3% 0.6% 81%
AA 2223 American Flight history → LGA 09:05 ORD 10:36 15% 4% 1.8% 88%
UA 1310 United Flight history → LGA 10:15 ORD 11:57 16% 3% 0.6% 80%
AA 3100 American Flight history → LGA 09:44 ORD 11:30 16% 4% 1.8% 79%
UA 1166 United LGA 08:10 ORD 09:39 17% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 477 United LGA 09:20 ORD 10:49 17% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 2079 American Flight history → LGA 12:14 ORD 13:59 18% 5% 1.9% 76%
AA 386 American LGA 07:59 ORD 09:31 18% 4% 2.3% no record
DL 2240 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:30 ORD 13:05 19% 3% 0.7% 74%
AA 1814 American LGA 10:01 ORD 11:32 20% 4% 2.3% no record
AA 2057 American Flight history → LGA 21:29 ORD 23:30 22% 6% 2.0% 55%
UA 2635 United Flight history → LGA 11:20 ORD 12:57 22% 5% 0.6% 74%
DL 2806 Delta Flight history → LGA 20:45 ORD 22:36 22% 6% 0.7% 59%
AA 1069 American LGA 12:22 ORD 13:53 22% 5% 2.7% no record
UA 2015 United LGA 11:24 ORD 12:57 23% 5% 0.6% no record
AA 1705 American Flight history → LGA 14:11 ORD 16:05 25% 5% 1.8% 66%
UA 714 United Flight history → LGA 13:25 ORD 15:02 30% 6% 0.6% 71%
UA 1830 United Flight history → LGA 21:25 ORD 22:58 31% 7% 0.7% 56%
UA 2768 United Flight history → LGA 20:25 ORD 22:12 31% 7% 0.7% 47%
UA 1504 United Flight history → LGA 15:25 ORD 17:20 31% 6% 0.7% 61%
DL 2513 Delta Flight history → LGA 18:50 ORD 20:56 31% 9% 0.7% 57%
AA 3318 American Flight history → LGA 19:25 ORD 21:35 31% 7% 2.1% 59%
DL 2226 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:45 ORD 16:30 33% 5% 0.7% 64%
DL 2503 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:00 ORD 19:10 33% 7% 0.7% 62%
DL 1390 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:00 ORD 18:03 33% 6% 0.7% 66%
UA 1967 United Flight history → LGA 13:22 ORD 14:51 35% 6% 0.6% 74%
UA 2199 United Flight history → LGA 14:28 ORD 16:14 35% 6% 0.7% 74%
AA 752 American Flight history → LGA 17:29 ORD 19:43 37% 9% 1.9% 54%
AA 1534 American LGA 14:32 ORD 16:08 37% 6% 2.7% no record
AA 396 American Flight history → LGA 16:00 ORD 18:08 37% 7% 1.8% 64%
UA 2446 United Flight history → LGA 19:25 ORD 21:12 38% 8% 0.7% 52%
UA 1442 United LGA 14:29 ORD 16:07 39% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 1156 United Flight history → LGA 16:25 ORD 18:17 41% 9% 0.7% 53%
UA 1098 United Flight history → LGA 18:25 ORD 20:12 42% 9% 0.7% 39%
AA 3163 American Flight history → LGA 18:18 ORD 19:58 42% 10% 2.1% 72%worse than usual
UA 602 United Flight history → LGA 17:25 ORD 19:12 46% 9% 0.7% 42%
UA 2336 United LGA 17:17 ORD 18:48 52% 9% 0.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON