Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2536 at 07:00, 16%.

Safest bet today DL 2536 LGA 07:00 → PBI 09:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1761 LGA 18:00 → PBI 21:05 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2536 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	PBI 09:49	16%	4%	5.7%	90%
B6 1461 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:15	PBI 10:10	22%	7%	7.0%	88%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:40	PBI 14:48	22%	11%	5.0%	83%
DL 2460 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:10	PBI 18:32	28%	8%	0.7%	65%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:20	PBI 14:15	33%	13%	6.8%	73%
DL 2410 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	PBI 22:46	33%	9%	0.7%	63%
B6 1761 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 18:00	PBI 21:05	48%	19%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON