Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:20 pm at New York); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60% (calm day: 40%). Best bet: American via Charlotte, leaving 19:27, 45% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	LGA 19:27 → CLT 21:19AA 2390	1h 42m Charlotte	CLT 23:01 → PNS 23:46AA 1007	5h 19m	88%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 18:24 → MIA 21:48AA 716	1h 20m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	6h 35m	41%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON