tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 2h 30m Chicago MDW 09:50 → SJC 12:14WN 2990 9h 14m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 47m Chicago ORD 09:36 → SJC 12:14UA 307 9h 04m 99% 89%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465 1h 15m Chicago MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752 8h 05m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136 10h 53m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 1h 42m Denver DEN 11:37 → SJC 13:23UA 1256 8h 43m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454 1h 00m Denver DEN 10:05 → SJC 11:42WN 4387 7h 47m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 96% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:01 → DFW 20:10AA 3103 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58AA 1940 8h 57m 67% 44%
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 46m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 8h 18m 51% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON