tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:19 am at New York)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Denver, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 10h 17m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 7h 59m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:28 → ORD 16:14UA 2199 3h 31m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 10h 51m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → LGA 14:00 → IAH 17:01UA 2674 3h 18m Houston IAH 20:19 → SNA 22:04UA 326 11h 04m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → LGA 07:23 → ORD 09:09AA 392 2h 55m Chicago ORD 12:04 → SNA 14:42AA 661 10h 19m 99% 76%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 10:20 → DEN 12:40WN 1228 2h 15m Denver DEN 14:55 → SNA 16:20WN 4131 9h 00m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → LGA 11:20 → ORD 12:57UA 2635 3h 21m Chicago ORD 16:18 → SNA 18:54UA 1317 10h 34m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 14:00 → DEN 16:20WN 2455 2h 40m Denver DEN 19:00 → SNA 20:30WN 1748 9h 30m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → LGA 16:25 → DEN 19:05WN 2456 1h 25m Denver DEN 20:30 → SNA 22:00WN 744 8h 35m 73% 57%
AmericanDetails → LGA 17:01 → DFW 20:10AA 3103 1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348 8h 23m 73% 56%
UnitedDetails → LGA 16:59 → DEN 19:35UA 2834 57m Denver DEN 20:32 → SNA 22:01UA 725 8h 02m 64% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON