Today: YX 4606 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–37%.

Safest bet today YX 4606 LGA 06:58 → XNA 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4554 LGA 18:26 → XNA 21:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4606 Republic	LGA 06:58	XNA 09:27	6%	1%	0.2%	no record
AA 4620 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:56	XNA 09:26	6%	1%	0.2%	93%
AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:43	XNA 16:13	18%	3%	0.2%	77%
AA 4524 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:40	XNA 16:08	19%	3%	0.2%	73%
AA 4554 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:26	XNA 21:20	37%	6%	0.2%	67%
DL 5482 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:15	XNA 10:32	20%	7%	3.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON